Many people would like to analyse which jobs, companies and industries are most exposed to AI, and assign scores, build charts, and map that against the progress of LLMs. I think this is mostly impossible: you don’t know how the jobs will change, you don’t know what else will change around this, and you can’t measure work like that anyway.

The simplest way to see the problem is to back-test this against other big technology shifts in the past. Some of the industries that should have suffered most ended up much bigger, and some of the industries that did suffer most should have been immune.

50 years of financial automation doesn’t seem to have hurt the market for CPAs.

— Benedict Evans, Predicting AI job exposure